Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry has announced President Prabowo Subianto’s readiness to travel to Tehran to “facilitate dialogue” amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, this bold diplomatic offer has been met with significant skepticism, with critics branding the idea as “highly unrealistic” and questioning its feasibility.
The announcement from Jakarta coincided with a period of intensified US-Israel attacks on Iran, which commenced on Saturday, February 28. Analysts are widely predicting a prolonged conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, further exacerbating instability in the region.
Adding to the global concern, Iran has taken the drastic step of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial strategic waterway for global energy trade. This closure is expected to have far-reaching indirect consequences for the world economy, including Indonesia, a significant oil importer, according to expert researchers.
Meanwhile, the safety of Indonesian nationals in Iran remains a priority. The Indonesian Embassy in Tehran reports 329 registered citizens, stating that its network of Indonesians “does not feel any direct threat.” Nevertheless, the embassy has urged all citizens to maintain heightened vigilance.
A Controversial Diplomatic Overture
Amidst the ongoing US-Israel assaults on Iran, Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official statement. It declared, “The Government of Indonesia, in this case the President of the Republic of Indonesia, expresses its readiness to facilitate dialogue for the creation of conducive security conditions once again.” The ministry’s official account on X (formerly Twitter) further elaborated on Saturday, February 28, stating, “And if agreed by both parties, the President of Indonesia is willing to depart for Tehran to carry out mediation.”
However, this initiative quickly drew criticism from former Indonesian diplomat Dino Patti Djalal, who dismissed the idea as “very unrealistic.” “I am surprised why this idea was not filtered before it was announced,” Dino questioned on his Instagram account on Sunday, March 1. He argued that it would be impossible for President Prabowo to mediate the increasingly fierce US-Israel conflict with Iran, primarily because the US rarely yields to third-party intervention.
“America’s ego as a superpower is too high to accept that,” stated Djalal, who previously served as Indonesia’s Ambassador to the US. He also pointed out that the Iranian government has not been particularly close to Indonesia recently, further complicating any mediation efforts. Another significant hurdle making this “amazing idea” improbable is the challenge of persuading US figures like former President Trump or Secretary of State Marco Rubio to engage in talks with high-ranking Iranian officials.
Djalal also highlighted the potential for President Prabowo to have to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as part of mediation efforts. “Diplomatically, politically, and logistically, this is impossible. It would be political suicide for President Prabowo domestically,” Djalal asserted. He believes Indonesia should take a firm stance in this conflict, bravely calling out the US-Israel attacks on Iran as a violation of principles. “The Israeli-US attacks on Iran contradict all the principles conveyed by President Prabowo in his historic speech at the UN General Assembly last year,” he added.
‘Polishing an Image’
Virdika Rizky Utama, a researcher from PARA Syndicate, characterized the mediation proposal as “seeking an international stage.” “This is no longer about consistent Indonesian diplomatic strategy, but more about an effort to polish an image amidst a crisis,” he argued. “If they were truly brave, they should go to America and Israel and ask them to stop attacking [Iran].”
Furthermore, Utama contended that Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy has effectively “died” since its alignment with Trump’s “Board of Peace.” “So, if Indonesia now tries to act as a mediator in Iran, the international community will surely laugh. How can a country that has allied itself with one of the parties involved in the conflict be trusted as an honest arbiter?” he questioned.
Similarly, defense observer Made Supriatma from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute described the president’s role as a negotiator as a “gimmick.” Supriatma, in a post on his personal Facebook page, posed numerous questions, including: “Indonesia offering itself as a mediator. Seriously?” When contacted, he further elaborated that Indonesia currently lacks sufficient influence in terms of political power, neutrality, good relations with conflicting nations, economic-military leverage, or active communication channels. He stressed that in the context of the US-Israel war with Iran, the objective is no longer to oust one or two leaders but to topple regimes. “America and Israel are already in open warfare, continually killing leaders of a nation. What else is there to negotiate? There’s no way for Iran to back down, except to fight,” Made concluded.
Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Closure
Following the commencement of US-Israel attacks, Iran opted to close the Strait of Hormuz. As of Sunday, March 1, the US and Israel launched fresh attacks after the reported death of Iran’s leader, Ali Khamenei. Dino Patti Djalal predicts that this direct conflict involving three nations will be “prolonged.” “Because the objective of this military attack, this time, is not just to halt Iran’s nuclear capacity, but to overthrow the government in Tehran,” he explained.
The US and Israel are expected to deploy all their military and intelligence resources to destabilize Iran. Conversely, Iran will not remain passive and will mount resistance. “Given that [the attack on] Iran differs from Venezuela, possessing a significant political and military network in several areas outside Iran in the Middle East, it is certain that this war will also draw in external parties and spread shocks beyond Iran’s borders,” Djalal warned.
The Strait of Hormuz, nestled between Iran and Oman, is a globally vital oil trade artery. Its entry and exit points are approximately 50 km wide, narrowing to about 40 km at its tightest point. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil traverses this narrow passage, which is sufficiently deep in its central sections for large vessels. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that around 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2023. This volume represents nearly US$600 billion worth of energy trade transported via this maritime route annually. Any disruption to this sea lane could lead to significant global oil shipment delays, immediately impacting oil prices.
Many nations depend on this route for their energy distribution. Beyond China, other major Asian economies, including India, Japan, and South Korea, are heavily reliant on crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Research by Vortexa indicates that crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia alone account for approximately six million barrels per day through the Strait. This volume surpasses shipments from other countries in the region. The EIA estimated that in 2022, about 82% of crude oil and condensate (low-density liquid hydrocarbons similar to natural gas) traversing the strait headed to Asian countries, including Indonesia.
Beware of Price Hikes in Indonesia
Many circles in Indonesia are closely monitoring future developments following the Strait of Hormuz closure. According to Kompas.id, the trade route’s closure could indirectly affect domestic goods prices, as many products in Indonesia are imported, particularly from China. Furthermore, Setijadi, founder and CEO of Supply Chain Indonesia, projected that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger an increase in national distribution costs and domestic product prices. In a worst-case scenario, for instance, a 30% rise in diesel prices could ignite a 10.5% to 12% surge in transportation costs.
PT Pertamina Persero announced it is monitoring the evolving global energy dynamics and claims to have implemented mitigation measures to ensure the smooth flow of the global supply chain and national energy security. “Pertamina has prepared risk mitigation steps and strengthened communication with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesian Embassies (KBRI), Indonesian Consulates General (KJRI), and local authorities to maintain operational smoothness and crew safety,” stated Muhammad Baron, Vice President Corporate Communication of PT Pertamina (Persero), on Sunday, March 1.
The risk of limited crude oil, fuel, and LPG supplies from the Middle East is being proactively managed by sourcing from other regions. Baron explained that Pertamina boasts a diversified portfolio of supply sources from various partner countries, in addition to domestic production. “This diversification provides flexibility in managing supply amidst geopolitical dynamics,” he said. Pertamina is also optimizing domestic refinery operations to sustain production and distribution balance.
Kompas.id reported that for crude oil products in 2025, Pertamina imports approximately 387,000 barrels of oil per day. A notable 19% of these imports originate from the Middle East—a volume likely to be hampered if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. On the ground, two Pertamina vessels transporting fossil fuels are reportedly still within the Strait of Hormuz area. Vega Pita, Acting Corporate Secretary of PT Pertamina International Shipping (PIS), asserted that her team is actively working to extract both vessels from the gulf area. “Currently, our fleet team is in intense communication with the managing parties for coordination and to ensure the safety of the crew and vessels,” Vega Pita was quoted by Suara.com on Sunday, March 1.
Concurrently, Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, reached US$72.48 per barrel by Sunday evening, March 1. Prices are expected to rise further following the turmoil in the Middle East. Virdika Rizky Utama, the PARA Syndicate researcher, labeled the “closure of the Strait of Hormuz as one of the most severe energy crises in the last decade.” “I think [crude oil] prices could break above US$100 per barrel or even higher if the closure lasts for a long time,” he warned. He expressed concern that a prolonged upheaval could significantly inflate energy import costs, leading to widespread effects such as surging prices for goods and services, and potentially “worsening the trade deficit and burdening the state budget.” “Domestic inflation will rise, and the burden of energy subsidies will become very heavy. This is not just an economic issue, but also a matter of political stability because fuel prices are a very sensitive issue for our society,” Virdika stressed.
From a geopolitical perspective, this incident underscores the fragility of global energy security, he noted. Asian countries, including Indonesia, will be compelled to seek alternative supply sources and strengthen their reserves. Regarding the potential reopening of the strait, Virdika believes it hinges entirely on the political dynamics in Iran after Khamenei’s death. In a leadership transition fraught with animosity, the logic of peace typically yields, Virdika stated. He predicts the Strait of Hormuz closure could last for months, as Iran will likely use this tactic to bolster its position. “In essence, this crisis will not end quickly, and Indonesia must immediately prepare an emergency energy strategy rather than just being busy with diplomacy for the sake of appearing on the world stage,” Virdika concluded.
What is the Fate of Indonesian Citizens in Iran?
Husein Ali reported that his two children, currently residing in Qom, Iran, are “safe and sound,” although the family remains “anxious.” “Two hours ago, we made phone calls… In Qom, he said he heard bomb sounds just yesterday morning. But it’s generally normal, safe,” Husein said on Sunday afternoon, March 1.
Since the attacks began, Iran has experienced internet outages. Some communications have been possible via the Starlink network. Qom is identified as one of the cities targeted by attacks, alongside Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, and Kermanshah, according to the Fars news agency. “They were just told to be careful,” Husein continued. His children, who are students, are spending most of their time in dorms, attending online classes. His older child, who is married and has lived in Qom for 15 years, has been unreachable for several days. “The family here, the mother’s side, is also anxious. He couldn’t connect to the internet for maybe four days. When he finally connected, our phone call was filled with worry, wondering what was happening,” Husein recounted. Despite this, he remains confident his children are fine.
BBC Indonesia requested that Husein contact his children again for more comprehensive on-the-ground information. However, Husein replied, “Sorry, still unreachable, it seems there’s no internet connection.”
The Indonesian Embassy (KBRI) in Tehran has reported at least 329 registered Indonesian citizens. The KBRI Teheran’s immediate focus is ensuring the safety of these citizens. “The current concentration of KBRI Teheran is to continuously conduct two-way communication with all Indonesian citizens in Iran, across all cities,” said Roy Soemirat, Indonesia’s Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Iran and Turkmenistan, as quoted by Kompas.com.
He emphasized that communication from Indonesian citizens in Iran is crucial for determining appropriate protective measures. “This communication is very important for us to make the most accurate assessment to provide the assistance and protection needed by Indonesian citizens,” he stated. Soemirat claimed that all contact points for Indonesian citizens have been reached or have reached out from various cities in Iran. He added that as of Saturday afternoon, February 28, Iran time, these registered citizens “have not experienced or felt any direct threat.” Nevertheless, the KBRI continues to urge vigilance. The KBRI Teheran is also maintaining communication and coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Jakarta to monitor developments and take necessary actions.
The US-Israel attacks on Iran, which commenced on Saturday, February 28, have tragically resulted in 201 fatalities and 747 injuries, according to the Iranian Red Crescent. At least 148 people were reported dead following an attack that reportedly struck a school in southern Iran, local officials confirmed.
- US urges China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz – What are the consequences if the oil route is blocked?
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- Story of an Indonesian family whose children live in Iran – ‘Unreachable for five days, I always pray they are okay’
- Indonesians in Iran ‘worried they can’t finish college,’ government prepares evacuation plans
- Hopes and fears of Iranians about potential US attacks – ‘Freedom from the regime or descent into civil war?’
Summary
President Prabowo Subianto has offered to mediate the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, expressing his readiness to travel to Tehran. However, this diplomatic overture has been met with strong skepticism from analysts and former diplomats who deem it “highly unrealistic” and a “gimmick,” citing the unlikelihood of US acceptance and Indonesia’s limited influence. This offer coincides with intensified US-Israel attacks on Iran, which experts predict will be a prolonged conflict aimed at regime change.
Amidst the escalation, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil trade route, a move expected to trigger significant worldwide oil price hikes and indirectly impact Indonesia’s economy as a major oil importer. The Indonesian Embassy in Tehran is prioritizing the safety of 329 registered citizens, urging vigilance despite no direct threats reported, while Pertamina has prepared mitigation steps for national energy security. The ongoing attacks have reportedly resulted in hundreds of fatalities and injuries in Iran.