The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is anticipated to strengthen, potentially reaching levels between 7,150 and 7,200, as trading resumes on Wednesday, March 25, following the extensive Lebaran 2026 holiday period.
This optimistic forecast comes after the IHSG concluded its session on Tuesday, March 17, with a significant surge, gaining 84.55 points, or 1.20 percent, to close at 7,106.839.
According to capital market observer and Founder of Republik Investor, Hendra Wardana, the trajectory of the Indonesian stock market post the long Nyepi and Lebaran holidays will primarily be shaped by a blend of prevailing global sentiment and inherent domestic seasonal factors.
Wardana notes that during the holiday stretch, global markets, particularly in the US and Asia, exhibited a positive trend. This upward momentum was driven by easing geopolitical tensions and a stabilization in energy prices, factors that collectively inject initial positive sentiment into the Indonesian stock market.
“Historically, the IHSG often experiences a technical rebound after an extended Lebaran break,” Hendra explained to Kumparan on Wednesday, March 25. He elaborated that prior to such long holidays, investors frequently engage in profit-taking and adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach, leading to a subsequent influx of funds back into the market once trading resumes.
Given these dynamics, Hendra projects that the IHSG has the potential for an initial upward movement at the market opening this morning. However, he cautions that this strengthening might be limited, with the index likely to remain within a consolidation phase, potentially testing the resistance area between 7,150 and 7,200.
On the other hand, Hendra emphasized the importance for market participants to remain vigilant regarding external risks. Should geopolitical tensions resurface, energy prices experience a sharp spike, or the US Federal Reserve (The Fed) implement interest rate policies tighter than market expectations, the IHSG could face renewed pressure, potentially retesting the psychological support level of 7,000.
“Market movements this week are also highly likely to react to global developments that occurred during the long holiday, including fluctuations in commodity prices such as gold and energy,” he added, underscoring the interconnectedness of global and domestic markets.
For Wednesday, March 25, Hendra Wardana recommends several stocks for investors to consider, including SRTG, SUPA, EMTK, and SCMA.
Meanwhile, Mirae Asset Sekuritas offers a slightly different outlook, forecasting that the IHSG on Wednesday, March 25, could undergo a “gap adjustment” at the start of the week. This adjustment would be a response to the accumulated global sentiment during the extended holiday period, potentially pushing the index towards a range of 7,257-7,482.
“With a portion of market participants still on holiday or not yet fully re-engaged in the market, the prospect for trading volume and transactions on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) remains relatively moderate,” explained Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, in his statement.
He elaborated that market players are expected to adopt a prudent stance, closely monitoring geopolitical dynamics, particularly in the Middle East, and awaiting signals on government or Bank Indonesia (BI) policy directions post-holiday, alongside the release of the latest US economic data.
“Nevertheless, the presence of year-end ‘window dressing‘ activities by fund managers at the close of March, coupled with potential ‘bargain hunting‘ on various big-cap stocks, could serve as mitigating factors, preventing a significant decline in the IHSG,” Nafan added, highlighting additional influences on market behavior.
Mirae Asset Sekuritas’ top stock recommendations for Wednesday, March 25, include ANTM, INKP, and MBMA.
Disclaimer: Investment decisions are solely based on the reader’s consideration and judgment. This news article does not constitute an invitation to buy, hold, or sell any specific investment product.