Professor Hikmahanto Juwana, a distinguished Professor of International Law at the University of Indonesia, has outlined several critical factors that will ultimately determine the duration of any potential conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran. As the conflict reportedly enters its second week, Professor Hikmahanto identifies five primary variables influencing its trajectory.
This assessment comes amidst varying predictions regarding the conflict’s timeline. Previously, former US President Donald Trump speculated that such a war could conclude within four to five weeks. However, Iran has unequivocally stated its readiness to confront any aggression for as long as necessary to defend its sovereignty. “At least five variables determine how long or short the war will be,” Hikmahanto stated in a release on Friday, March 6.
The first crucial factor is the military stamina of each warring party. This encompasses the availability of vital military resources, including missiles, drones, fighter jets, and the sheer number of active personnel. Equally important is the financial capacity or budget allocated to sustain prolonged military operations. Essentially, the greater a nation’s military resources, the longer it can conceivably maintain its engagement in active warfare.
Secondly, domestic political and public support plays an indispensable role. Professor Hikmahanto emphasizes that decisions to either continue or cease hostilities are profoundly influenced by the level of support from a nation’s political leadership and its citizenry. “This is important because the authority to stop or continue the war heavily depends on the support of politicians and the people,” he elaborated, highlighting the intricate link between internal consensus and strategic choices.
A third significant variable involves the potential for other countries to become embroiled in the conflict. Hikmahanto suggests that Western nations like the United Kingdom, France, and Germany might align with one side, while powers such as Russia, China, and even North Korea could potentially support the other. The involvement of a wider array of nations would invariably expand the scope of the conflict, making it more extensive and protracted.
Furthermore, the reaction of the international community forms the fourth variable. Should the war become prolonged, it is highly probable that global pressure will mount, manifesting in forms such as diplomatic isolation or economic embargoes against the belligerent parties. In the contemporary digital age, such pressure can also emerge powerfully from global public opinion and various solidarity movements across different countries.
The final pivotal factor is the role of a mediator—a neutral third party or nation willing to facilitate negotiations. Professor Hikmahanto notes that mediators typically emerge when the warring factions begin to experience military exhaustion or a significant erosion of domestic support. “A mediator can offer an exit strategy for the warring parties, preventing them from being perceived as having lost,” he explained, underscoring the vital function of mediation in achieving a resolution without complete capitulation.
Summary
Professor Hikmahanto Juwana has identified five crucial factors that