Harga migas global meroket usai penutupan kilang Aramco dan Selat Hormuz

Global crude oil and natural gas prices experienced a significant surge on Monday, March 1st, following retaliatory strikes between Israel, the U.S., and Iran. These escalating geopolitical tensions led to the closure of crucial oil and gas facilities across the region and severely disrupted vital logistics routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy trade.

According to Reuters, Brent crude futures initially soared by as much as 13 percent, hitting USD 82.37 per barrel—a peak not seen since January. The benchmark contract later moderated, closing up 6.7 percent at USD 77.74 per barrel. This sharp escalation was amplified after markets closed, following a stark declaration from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on Monday evening, threatening to incinerate any vessel attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz.

Concurrently, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at USD 71.23, marking a 6.3 percent rise. Earlier in the day, the U.S. benchmark had surged by over 12 percent, reaching USD 75.33 per barrel, its highest point since June. While the initial climb in oil prices wasn’t as dramatic as some analysts had anticipated, Iran’s retaliatory actions targeting other key energy-producing nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar have ignited fears of prolonged instability and additional supply disruptions.

The widening conflict has already had tangible impacts. Saudi Arabia shuttered its largest domestic oil refinery after it sustained drone attacks. Qatar, a major global LNG exporter, halted liquefied natural gas production, with state-owned QatarEnergy poised to declare force majeure on its LNG deliveries. Furthermore, the expanding conflict has left 150 vessels stranded near the Strait of Hormuz, tragically resulting in the death of one sailor and significant damage to at least three tankers caught in the crossfire.

Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, encapsulated the prevailing uncertainty, stating, “The key questions are how much supply will be lost, for how long, and how the major nations react?”

Shipping Disruptions Amidst Strait of Hormuz Blockade

On an ordinary day, the Strait of Hormuz facilitates the passage of crude oil equivalent to approximately one-fifth of global demand. This strategic waterway is also critical for tankers transporting diesel, gasoline, and other refined fuels to major Asian markets, including China and India. Crucially, about 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) also transits through this vital maritime artery.

JPMorgan analysts warn that a constriction of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, lasting merely three to four weeks, could compel Arabian Gulf producers to cease production altogether, potentially pushing Brent crude prices well above the USD 100 per barrel mark. Amidst these concerns, Kenny Zhu, a research analyst at Global X, suggests that the North American energy complex is strategically positioned to mitigate the impact of long-term disruptions to global energy trade.

This resilience is evident in the relatively subdued response of the U.S. natural gas market compared to its European and Asian counterparts. On Monday, front-month U.S. natural gas futures saw a modest increase of 10.1 cents, or 3.5 percent, to USD 2.96 per million British thermal units. In contrast, the Dutch TTF gas hub, Europe’s benchmark, closed up approximately 40 percent at 44.51 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) on the Intercontinental Exchange. Similarly, Asian LNG prices surged by nearly 39 percent on Monday, with S&P Global Energy’s Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM), a widely used Asian LNG price benchmark, recorded at USD 15.068 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), according to Platts data.

Global Oil Supply Outpaces Demand Amidst Tensions

Despite the current heightened global tensions contributing to a 19 percent year-to-date rise in Brent crude prices and a 17 percent increase for WTI, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other analysts maintain that the market retains ample supply. Forecasts indicate that additional production from key players like the U.S., Guyana, and OPEC+ is expected to surpass global demand this year. On Sunday, OPEC+ members collectively agreed to boost oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft noted that virtually all OPEC+ producers, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, are already operating at full capacity.

Globally, visible oil reserves currently stand at 7.827 million barrels, sufficient to meet demand for approximately 74 days, a figure closely aligning with the historical median, as outlined in a Goldman Sachs note. However, the ripple effects are already reaching consumers. The average retail gasoline price in the U.S. surpassed USD 3 per gallon on Monday, marking the first time since November. Analysts anticipate that the expanding conflict will further inflate prices in the coming days.

U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures climbed to a two-year high of USD 2.90 on Monday, surging by about 9 percent, while gasoline futures experienced an increase of approximately 4 percent. Kenny Zhu from Global X concluded, “While we don’t know where these disruptions will end or how this conflict will ultimately resolve, the short-term outcome is most likely increased volatility in global energy markets and the potential for rerouting of global oil and gas shipments.”